A Letter to My Governments

Some of the meager few who read this blog already know that I am a 'Peak Oiler', one voice of the tens of thousands who have heard the peak oil message and understood the implications. In the past I have written to my government representatives to express my concern. Generally I get no response or noncommittal platitudes. Today I've composed a more strongly worded letter, including links to the recent US Government Accountability Office report, regarding the critical nature of this issue.

If the opinion of the US GAO, one of the most highly respected entities in the US government, telling them that the imminent peak in global oil production will have an unavoidable economic impact on the US, the most voracious consumer of petroleum, even if we act now, then nothing will. You'd think that the country of Sweden's commitment to be petroleum-free in just 15 years would clue them in as to the seriousness of the issue. Perhaps one year ago was just too soon, the issue is quickly gaining mindshare, which is good, as I note in my letter below, we simply don't have the luxury of the 2 or 3 decades it has taken for global climate change to (almost) become an 'action item'.

Below is a letter I wrote to send to pretty much anyone who represents me in government, local, state and federal. I expect that their respective staffs will skim it and bin it, and perhaps pass on a note that some nutter in Omaha thinks energy security is important, so tally another vote for pounding Iraq (which contains the second largest proven reserves of conventional crude oil in the world, by the way) into submission.

I hope that you, gentle reader, will not dismiss my opinion quite so lightly. Please, take a few hours to poke around the links I provide below and to read about this issue and to consider how it could impact you.

I'm not asking you to change your lifestyle. I just want to direct your attention briefly away from the immediate concerns of your life to the storm clouds on the horizon. Take some advice from a friend and an evening to assess this potential threat for yourself. If you see that perhaps the forecast is for rain, you will see for yourself the need to change your lifestyle and to pass on the warning.

Below is the message I am sending to my mayor, governor, representative, senators and to the President himself (for all the good that will do, perhaps he can get an intern to explain the big words).

Greetings,

I am writing to express my concerns about energy security, specifically the issue of global peak oil production. Recently the US Government Accountability Office has released a report concerning peak oil production. The full article is available:

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

Their conclusion:

"The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness. The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities. Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage. While these consequences would be felt globally, the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world."

The timing of a peak in production is very difficult to estimate, for reasons described in the report. A recent report from Sweden (a country already working on it's stated goal of becoming petroleum free within 15 years) makes a credible estimate of peak production occurring by 2018:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266764,00.html

This is an extremely near-term estimate, and yet well within the range the GAO finds credible. This is the sort of time-frame that, if correct, would result in the 'dire' consequences mentioned in the GAO report.

I have been following peak oil news for most of a year now and have seen it slowly moving from a peripheral awareness toward the center of attention. Years ago, when I was in high school, my Biology class marked Earth Day by planting trees on the school grounds. Now, twenty years later, global climate change is taken seriously, more or less. A significant number of people agree that somebody should do something about it (as long as it isn't too expensive of course). It took more than two full decades for people to reach this consensus. With peak oil we do not have the luxury of decades to decide to make changes. As you will see in the GAO report and multitudes of other publications, if we make a concerted effort now to slash our energy requirements we might be able to avoid the bulk of a long and deep economic depression. If we do nothing, or if we address this problem by attempting to replace our imported fuels without drastically reducing our consumption we will certainly experience a long, deep and crippling depression.

I don't want to make statements that sound alarmist, our natural tendency is to dismiss such Chicken Little pronouncements and to dismiss the speaker as unreliable. I recognize this, but the fact is that this is a well researched issue, and it is, in fact, very alarming. This is not another bullet point in your list of priorities. It is the priority, it is the imminent exhaustion of the foundation that our American civilization is built upon. Yes, I know, I sound like a nutjob now. Please, read the reports for yourself, take a look at the large internet communities that have grown around peak oil preparedness. Realize how critically important this is and that the only solution is to make the lifestyle changes that are necessary to cut our fuel consumption at a prodigious rate.

Thanks
Me
Elkhorn, NE

And now for some links you can read to learn what this whole peak oil thing is.

Wikipedia.com's Hubbert peak theory
EnergyBulletin.com's Peak Oil Primer
PeakOil.com's Exporing the Issue of Hydrocarbon Depletion
OmniNerd's What You Need to Know about Peak Oil
SaintBryan's Let's Talk About Peak Oil
James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency
Life After the Oil Crash

M. King Hubbert on Lower 48 peak oil production:

YouTube videos about peak oil. Includes clips from many well known figures. Also includes some wacko conspiracy theory stuff, don't believe everything you hear.

Michael C. Ruppert's FromTheWilderness.com

Do be aware that many of these sources have their own agendas. Focus on gathering and verifying information from many sources, this is a high-stakes issue about one of the most profitable industries the world has ever known. Not everyone will be telling the same story.